Efficient bankruptcy prediction and its role for a more resilient Alpine tourism

Alexander Plaikner; Marco Haid; Marcus Tänzel; Hüseyin Yağızhan Kol

doi:10.36096/ijbes.v7i1.716

Authors

Alexander Plaikner University of Innsbruck & UMIT Tirol https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3953-2296
Marco Haid UMIT Tirol – Private University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7984-5791
Marcus Tänzel Volkswagen Group Retail France https://orcid.org/0009-0001-8890-8333
Hüseyin Yağızhan Kol Ibn Haldun University https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1776-2522

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36096/ijbes.v7i1.716

Keywords:

tourism, bankruptcy, SMEs, Risk Management, Resilience

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of selected variables on the value creation of tourism enterprises in Western Austria (Salzburg, Tyrol, and Vorarlberg) with the objective of developing an insolvency prediction model for Alpine tourism businesses. This study specifically highlights practical applications for business owners, policymakers, and financial institutions, providing strategies to mitigate bankruptcy risks in the tourism sector. The objective of this study is to address existing gaps in the literature regarding the early detection of insolvency in the tourism sector, particularly in German-speaking regions. To this end, a hybrid analytical method is employed, combining quantitative statistical approaches with sector-specific contextual analysis. A dataset comprising tourism firms was divided into two groups, namely solvent and insolvent, with a view to identifying significant explanatory variables influencing insolvency risks. The primary findings indicate that enterprise size, company age, and debt levels (as indicated by the equity ratio) are significant risk factors for insolvency. Furthermore, the results suggest that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable to financial crises. Finally, the findings demonstrate that macroeconomic structures and sectoral effects significantly impact insolvency probabilities. These findings emphasise the necessity for the development of early warning systems that are tailored to the specific requirements of SMEs in Alpine tourism.This research is particularly pertinent in light of the rising insolvency rates in the tourism industry and the lack of comprehensive official statistics, which impede effective crisis management. By addressing these challenges, the study contributes to the development of targeted risk management and intervention strategies to enhance the resilience of tourism enterprises in the region.

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Author Biographies

Alexander Plaikner, University of Innsbruck & UMIT Tirol

Alexander Plaikner is researcher at the Department of Management and Marketing, University of Innsbruck and serves as Senior Scientist at the Division for Management in Health and Sport Tourism at the UMIT TIROL – Private University for Health Sciences and Health Technology. He completed an apprenticeship in commerce, graduated from the University of Innsbruck with a Master’s degree in International Business Administration and Psychology and spent some years in management.

Marco Haid, UMIT Tirol – Private University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology

Univ-Doz. Dr. Marco Haid, is a research assistant at the Division for Management in Health and Sports Tourism at the University UMIT TIROL - Private University For Health Sciences and Health Technology. His research interests lie in destination management, nature-based tourism and sustainable product development in tourism. He is a reviewer for various tourism journals, and a lecturer in educational initiatives for tourism practitioners.

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